Senate Districts not up for election in 2024

The Wisconsin State Senate is the upper chamber of the Wisconsin State Legislature. Alongside the Wisconsin State Assembly, it forms the legislative branch of the Wisconsin state government and works alongside the governor of Wisconsin to create laws and establish a state budget. Legislative authority and responsibilities of the Wisconsin State Senate include passing bills on public policy matters, setting levels for state spending, raising and lowering taxes, and voting to uphold or override gubernatorial vetoes.

Wisconsin state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and half of the state Senate is up for election every two years. Wisconsin holds elections for its legislature in even years.

The 2023-24 legislative cycle had 22 Republicans and 11 Democrats make up the 33 person Wisconsin State Senate body.

The new maps got both parties worked up and since it is election time again, Incumbents and candidates are coming out from where ever they were and again will be asking for your vote. The new maps are going to make strange bed fellows when some Incumbents are faced with the reality of challenging a fellow incumbent or just moving to a more friendly district. Hopefully some will take the higher road and just retire. No matter what these people do in 2024, some of the existing Senators are not going anywhere fast and will not be up for election in 2024, they are called Incumbents.

Who are these Incumbents you speak of?

Andre Jacque (R) Senate District 1. Jacque is a prohibitionist and has not helped marijuana reform in anyway. Under the new maps it seems that Jacque would reside in the new Senate District 30. The new Senate District 30 is predicted to go from a 57.2% GOP lean to a 52.6% Democrat lean. Jacque announced back in March 2024 that he will join the primary battle with Roger Roth for the open seat Congressman Mike Gallagher leaves open, and we all now know that newcomer Tony Weid beat the better known Republicans.

The new Senate District 1 would be a safe place for any Republican with 58% GOP Lean. Will Jacque just move to this area since he lost his congressional bid? There are several assembly incumbents that do live in this new Senate District 1 that probably would like to just see Jacque retire after he lost his primary battle in August. Otherwise Jacque holds the Senate District 1 seat through the 2026 election.

Tim Carpenter (D) Senate District 3. All the current Democrat incumbents are in full support of legalization of adult use cannabis and 10 out 11 of them co-sponsored the 2024 legislation. Under the new maps this district should remain Democrat with 67% DEM lean.

Rob Hutton (R) Senate District 5. 49.7% DEM, 48.7% GOP and 1% OTHER. This is going to be a close one come 2026 election time! In his 2018 candidate interview Hutton said he is against recreational marijuana, he said marijuana is a gateway drug and is even hesitant on medical marijuana. We will label this district as very competitive for analysis purposes below.

Chris Larsen (D) Senate District 7. All the current Democrat incumbents are in full support of legalization of adult use cannabis and 10 out 11 of them co-sponsored the 2024 legislation. Under the new maps this district should remain Democrat with 65% DEM lean.

Devin LeMahieu (R) Senate District 9. This district is predicted to stay Republican with 57% of the vote. He was not as vocal an opponent of reform until he was elected Senate Majority Leader. Now he uses the “It remains illegal at the federal government level” and when asked about the GOP push for a medical marijuana start up bill to become law, he uses the “FDA” as an excuse. LeMahieu holds the current Majority Leader position in the Senate.

Steven Nass (R) Senate District 11. (Prediction 62% GOP lean) This guy was not redistricted and will remain the incumbent. He and Senator Stroebel are buddies and voted against hemp together. The southeastern border of Wisconsin is safe from legalization with this guy as your Senator.

John Jagler (R) Senate District 13. Interesting new district lines for sure. These new lines secure Republican dominance with a predicted 63% of the vote. Incumbent Joan Ballweg (R) technically resides in the new 13th, but currently she represents the 14th district. The new 14th is predicted to be a 53% DEM lean and even with that fact Ballweg has announced her intent to keep the 14th RED! Election experts have the 2024 Election for Senate 14 as a “toss up” with a +2% margin to the Democrats. If Ballweg loses her bid will she just retire, or will she challenge Jagler in 2026? There is the possibility of another Republican primary challenger to emerge yet that is much stronger on cannabis reform than either of these two.

Senator Jagler has been “swayed” to support medical marijuana while still as an Assembly Rep. He did sit on the committee for the 2019-20 medical marijuana bills.   As a Republican he did not officially co-sponsor any medical marijuana legislation, but he did express the need for a public hearing on adult use / recreational marijuana and with a little work he could easily be a medical marijuana leader and lead the conversation on cannabis reform within the Republican Party.

But when Senator Mary Felzkowski (R) held a public hearing on 4/20/2022 regarding her medical marijuana bill, Senator Jagler was right there to make sure the testimony from the Wisconsin Medical Society against it was heard loud and clear.

Mark Spreitzer (D) Senate District 15. Senator Spreitzer should be safe with 57% of the predicted to go DEM. Spreitzer has consistently co-sponsored cannabis legalization measures.

Howard Marklein (R) Senate District 17. Marklein could be in trouble with 54% of the SD 17 going to the Democrats. But he will not be the Incumbent in SD 17, as redistricting and the new maps indicated that Marklein would reside in the 14th Senate District, which is still not good news as the new SD14 is expected to go DEM by 53% and as noted above, Incumbent Ballweg (R) is running for the 14th. These maps are confusing and 17 is not up for election until 2026 but I predict this Senate District will eventually be represented by a Democrat.

After serving 10 years in the legislature, Republican Senator Marklein has not really moved on his stance.  He must not have been entertained enough because he did not even co-sponsor the Republican bill to create a medical marijuana program for Wisconsin.  The 2019 Senate Bill 683 does not allow home growing of marijuana or marijuana smoking products.  Vetted and supported by the Caucus, if Senator Marklein was a leader he would have supported this measure.  If Senator Marklein cared about the sick, dying and disabled of his district that benefit from medical marijuana, he would have done more. Marklein holds the Senate 17 seat through the 2026 election.

Rachael (RCG) Cabral-Guevara (R) Senate District 19. RCG will be safe in her redefined district with 61%. She is one of our lead GOP marijuana friendly elected officials. She supports full legalization, but I highly doubt we will see her name as an author on a bill anytime soon. Her district did changed and maybe she will change her tune from supporter to leader in the 2025-26 legislative session. She seemed to be supportive of forming The Wisconsin Cannabis Caucus.

Van Wanggaard (R) Senate District 21. The new district lines make some experts say this is a 50.3% DEM, 48.4% GOP and 1.3% OTHER. While some other reports I read still show a slight advantage to the GOP with 51.1%. Either way, it will be close and for the purposes of our analysis below, we are labeling the seat very competitive.

Van Wanggaard is a main obstacle to reform and is a prohibitionist. The new district maps will put current Senator Julian Bradley (SD 28) into the same district as Wanggaard. Bradley relocated in the past to run for office and he will move to keep representing a red district. Will Van Wanggaard retire and let Bradley, or any other Republican take a stab at this new close district? Early signs pointed to Bradley just moving so he can keep the incumbent tag going into the 2024 election and that is what he did. Van Wanggaard is in the Republican Senate Leadership as the the Majority Caucus Chair and will be around in the 2025-26 legislation session just saying NO.

Republican Senator Wanggaard from Racine has not co-sponsored any legislation on marijuana reform since elected in 2010 and most likely will not move his stance of “just say no”.   After coming off a nearly 30 year career with the Racine police force, he now serves as the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Judiciary and Public Safety.  In April 2019 he wrote an entire op ed piece entitled Is it high time to legalize in Wisconsin? No … The harmful effects on health and society outweigh any potential benefits.

Jesse James (R) Senate District 23. James is redistricted into the Senate District 31, which will lean 53.6% Democrat and there will be a Democrat Incumbent in the new Senate 31. The new Senate District 23 has a Republican elected Senator (Quinn) already and I just do not see James moving to challenge him. This could be the end of Jesse James. (Prediction GOP 65% and Dem 35% for new Senate District 23).

The leading prohibitionist in the Assembly, Rep. Jesse James, was a co-sponsor of the 2019 Republican attempt to create a medical marijuana program (the “pill bill” that did not allow smoking products or home grows).

He has been outspoken as wanting to be the lead on stopping recreational marijuana reform from happening in Wisconsin. Long time prohibitionist and mega rich man Senator Duey Stroebel was listening when Rep. James was mouthing off, and the two have collaborated to concentrate on finding some way to increase penalties for cannabis use.

During the 2021 legislation session, Rep. Jesse James circulated a bill to increase the penalty levels for BHO, butane hash oil products, both manufacturing and simple possession.   Author of SB 440 – Butane Hash Oil Enhanced Penalty Bill.

James is a Member of the Council on Alcohol and Other Drug Abuse.

Romaine Quinn (R) Senate District 25. Quinn is redistricted into District 23, but should be safe in his new district. But District 25 is kind of wide open then with no direct incumbent. (Prediction: GOP 54% and DEM 46% for new Senate District 25). Since elected in 2014 Rep. Quinn has seemed like a marijuana reformer. In 2022 he said this: “I don’t believe the government should stand in the way of somebody who has a chronic or terminal illness that could find relief by consuming marijuana in some form, which is why I also voted for “Right to Try” legislation when I was in the state assembly,” he said.

But Quinn doesn’t think the state is prepared for full legalization. “I also do not believe that those who use marijuana for recreation are bad people,” said Quinn. “If you go to work, pay your taxes, and don’t neglect your health or the health of your children, I have a hard time saying what you can or cannot do in the confines of your own home. “The key concern for law enforcement, which is a group I would look to for guidance on this, is that there is no good way to tell when someone is driving high. Unless we expect our police to start performing blood draws on the side of the road, we need the technology to make sure our roadways are safe before expanding more opportunities for impaired driving.”

Dianne Hesselbein (D) Senate District 27. 76% DEM lean. Hesselbein has co-sponsored past adult use legalization efforts.

Cory Tomczyk (R) Senate District 29. 57.5% GOP lean. Cory Tomczyk told us that he supports medical marijuana and it should have been legal by now. But he cannot support outright legalization of marijuana for recreational use.

Jeff Smith (D) Senate District 31. 53% DEM Lean, but the Republican Senator Jesse James will probably make a play for this seat in 2026 and it might be a close election and for our analysis below, this is a very competitive district.

Chris Kapenga (R) Senate District 33. Kapenga hates marijuana, but loves the attention hating on marijuana gets him. The new maps do not threaten him and this will be a 67.5% GOP lean district. Chris Kapenga is in Republican Leadership with the position of Senate President.

Way Too Early for Predictions in the 2026 Election?

First let’s predict the 2024 election.

Of course the 2024 election is not even over yet and a few Senate races are so competitive now that it is hard to make the call on who is going to be elected in 2024.

We do know that in 2024 five (5) Democrats are running uncontested and have a good chance of taking two (2) seats giving them 7 out of 16 seats.

There are no uncontested Republican seats as Democrats put challengers in every Senate Race, but the GOP is expected to easily take 6 (six) seats of the 16 up for election in 2024.

That leaves the 3 (three) seats, the Senate Races in District 8, 14 and 30 and let’s just assume for legalization’s sake, all three go Democrat. With those assumptions the Democrats would win 10 out of 16 seats in 2024 and then going into the 2025-26 election cycle the Democrats would have a total of 15 seats (10 they just won in 2024 and 5 they retain as noted above). That is close, but not close enough to take control of the Republican Senate, which most likely would end up with 18 seats (6 they just won in 2024 and the 12 that they still hold as noted above).

Best case scenario going into 2025 is the Senate is controlled by Republicans 18 seats to the Democrats 15 seats.

Now onto 2026

Based of the 2024 predictions above, Democrats will have 10 seats banked and Republicans would have 6 seats banked.

Seventeen (17) Senate seats will be up for election in 2026. The odd numbered Senate seats 1, 3, 5, 7 … through 33.

Eight (8) Republicans are very likely to retain Senate seats in the 2026 election. Math time again, 8 + 6 = 14.

Four (4) Democrats are very likely to retain Senate seats in the 2026 election. More math: 10 + 4 = 14.

Five (5) Senate seats are probably going to be considered competitive and could go either way in the 2026 election. They are Senate Districts 5, 17, 21, 25 and 31 as listed earlier in this article. Of those 5 races, it looks like three of them are leaning Democrat (17, 25, 31) and two look statistically pretty close to a toss up or 50/50 type race and those are Senate Districts 5 and 21.

If the Democrats perform as outlined in 2024 and take three out of the 5 close races in 2026, they would have the majority by a margin of 17 to 16 and could be on their way to a 19 – 14 Democrat controlled Senate if they over perform in 2026.

If Republicans over perform anywhere along the way in these assumptions, we would need to adjust the data accordingly.

Now back to reality, the 2024 election

The 16 even numbered Senate Districts are up for election in 2024. I have covered many of the 2024 Senate Races and will be provide ongoing analysis as we move along through the election cycle in 2024. The articles about the most competitive Senate races for 2024 are currently published for your review.

And do not forget about the Assembly Races for 2024. All ninety-nine (99) seats are up for election in 2024 and there are many very competitive races in the Wisconsin State Assembly to take notice of.

Stay tuned and get active!

Throughout the campaign season I will provide you additional 2024 Wisconsin State Election coverage, which also includes the 99 State Assembly Races. This next election is extremely important for marijuana reform and I will continue to bring you information as more candidates make their political moves.

In the event that we end up with divided government in the 2024-25 legislation session, the official formation of The Wisconsin Cannabis Caucus would be a must-do first step towards reform. The official establishment of this Caucus will represent the growing bipartisan support in Wisconsin.

Although session has ended we still urge you to contact your elected officials. The top four action alerts are still actionable on The Wisconsin Cannabis Activist Action Network for you immediate use.

Sources: CNanalysis, WisPolitics/redistricting /2024 Senate Races, Davesredistricting, PeoplesMaps